Cost of Homeownership in 2026: A 7-Year Equity Model
Updated
Direct answer: On an illustrative $500,000 purchase — 20% down, 30-year fixed at 6.67%, 3% nominal appreciation, 6% sale friction, $6,000 first-year maintenance — a sustained 1.5-point inflation shock compresses modeled seven-year real household wealth by about $19,700: roughly $17,500 of purchasing-power loss on ending net equity plus about $2,100 of added nominal maintenance. This is a sensitivity scenario, not a forecast.
Nominal equity: the dollar difference between what a home would sell for and what is still owed on it, expressed in the dollars of the year the sale happens, with no adjustment for what those dollars can buy.
Real equity: that same nominal figure deflated back into today's purchasing power. Real equity answers the only question that matters to a household: how much consumption does this asset actually fund?