How Much House Can You Really Afford in 2026?
The lender approves you against maximum DTI. We approve you against the cost of owning the home — taxes, insurance, maintenance reserve, and the 1–3% the bank does not see. Two very different numbers.
The problem
A 2026 buyer with $120K in household income and clean credit will see a pre-approval letter for roughly $570K. That number assumes you push your back-end DTI to 45%, reserve nothing for maintenance, and have stable employment forever. It also assumes your insurance and property tax do not move — both of which moved double-digits in most metros over the last 18 months.
The Conservative column on the affordability calculator drops the same buyer to ~$430K. That $140K gap is not the lender being wrong — it's the lender solving a different equation. The lender solves for can you make the payment. We solve for can you own the home.
The framework
All three bands sit on the same underlying math — the front-end / back-end DTI test. If the math itself is unfamiliar, start with the 28/36 rule explained, then return here for the buyer-side framework.
Max home price by income (2026 baselines)
Assumes 10% down, 30-year fixed at 6.75%, $550/mo non-housing debt, US-average state tax + insurance.
| Household income | Conservative 28/36 | Moderate 31/43 | Aggressive 36/45 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $60,000 | $215,000 | $255,000 | $285,000 |
| $80,000 | $285,000 | $340,000 | $380,000 |
| $100,000 | $360,000 | $425,000 | $475,000 |
| $120,000 | $430,000 | $510,000 | $570,000 |
| $150,000 | $540,000 | $640,000 | $715,000 |
| $200,000 | $720,000 | $850,000 | $955,000 |
| $250,000 | $900,000 | $1,065,000 | $1,195,000 |
Why state matters more than buyers think
Property-tax effective rates range 7x state-to-state. Insurance ranges 5x. The same income unlocks very different home prices depending on where you buy.
| State | Property tax | Insurance ($300K home) |
|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | 1.23% | $1,750/yr |
| Texas | 1.8% | $4,400/yr |
| Florida | 0.91% | $5,380/yr |
| California | 0.75% | $1,450/yr |
| New York | 1.72% | $1,620/yr |
| Illinois | 2.27% | $1,830/yr |
| New Jersey | 2.49% | $1,280/yr |
| Pennsylvania | 1.58% | $1,280/yr |
| Washington | 0.98% | $1,180/yr |
| Colorado | 0.55% | $2,880/yr |
Run your numbers
The calculator solves all three DTI bands against your income, your state, and your credit tier — and emails you the breakdown.
Affordability includes what you're buying
A buyer who maxes their pre-approval and then walks into an inspection report with end-of-life HVAC, an aging roof, and a Federal Pacific panel ends up with a five-figure decision they cannot fund. That is not an inspection problem — it is an affordability problem made visible by an inspection. Buy at the Conservative or Moderate column and the same report becomes a routine credit negotiation.
Once you're past affordability, the next gate is the Inspection Action Hub. The decision logic above feeds directly into the deal-breaker framework: if the worst likely finding would push you above the Aggressive column, the home is not affordable in our framework — full stop.
Frequently asked
How much house can I afford on $100K salary in 2026?+
Roughly $360K–$475K depending on down payment, debt, and your state's tax + insurance. The conservative 28/36 band caps you near $360K with the maintenance reserve intact; the aggressive lender max stretches to ~$475K but leaves no buffer for ownership. The calculator above runs the full math against your state.
What is the 28/36 rule and is it still valid in 2026?+
Yes — and arguably more important than ever. The 28% front-end and 36% back-end caps were built to leave room for maintenance, property tax growth, and life shocks. With 2026 insurance up 30%+ in coastal markets and property taxes rising in most metros, the 28/36 band is closer to the real ceiling than the lender's 31/43 or 36/45 caps.
Why does the calculator solve for a lower number than my pre-approval?+
Pre-approval is built against maximum DTI with no reserve for repairs, maintenance, or system replacement. The affordability framework above reserves 1% of home value per year for maintenance — the floor of the HomeScore 1–3% rule. That gap explains why buyers who use their full pre-approval are also the buyers we hear from a year later, stretched thin against an aging roof or HVAC.
How much should I budget for property tax and insurance?+
It depends entirely on state. Effective property tax ranges from 0.32% (Hawaii) to 2.49% (New Jersey) — a 7x gap. Average homeowners insurance ranges from $950/yr (Oregon) to $5,380/yr (Florida). The state defaults table below shows the deltas; the calculator above bakes them in automatically.